Since 2014, many corporations have utilized in California for testing self-driving automobiles. The checklist of corporations which have obtained a allow can be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous automobile expertise. The graph beneath reveals how the variety of corporations lively in California has solely elevated steadily from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep improve follows in 2017. The slope softens within the first half of 2018.

After all it might be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the top of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving automobile innovation course of at present unfolding internationally.

Energetic California AV permits by month (Information from California DMV) Up to date: 2018-11-18 (you would possibly must reload your browser to see the newest model)

However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of corporations offering self-driving automobile options will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the business strikes into the subsequent part, the place the exploratory modes of growth will probably be changed by extra systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization would be the main focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time could also be working out for many who nonetheless wish to leap onto the self-driving automotive practice…

Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the top of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 lively permits.

Updates:

The graphic is up to date occasionally. Chances are you’ll must reload your this web page in your browser to view the present model of the graphic.

-2018-11-18: By the top of October 2018, the variety of lively permits elevated to 60.

– 2018-09-07: By the top of August 2018, Mando America Company obtained a allow, growing the variety of lively permits to 56.

– 2018-08-07: By the top of July 2018, 2 corporations didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) lowering the variety of lively permits to 55.